Michaelcek Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:29:59

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
гей порно геей
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

KarenDaumb Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:25:31

online casino bitcoin deposit
live casino online real money
progressive jackpot online slots online scratch cards real money online scratch cards real money online casino sign up bonus online casino with fast registration
ethereum casino real money

Franksmeat Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:20:26

darknet drug store nexus link nexus darknet access

JuliusVag Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:20:23

darknet market nexus darknet market darknet markets links

Herbertidone Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:02:59

Цифровое поколение или
Современная молодёжь — это поколение онлайн, которое выросло в эпоху технологий. Они моментально осваивают новые гаджеты, и для них социальные сети — это часть повседневной жизни.

Их основные ценности это:

Поиск себя
Молодые люди активно самореализуются. Это поколение не боится менять карьеру. Важны не столько деньги, сколько удовлетворение.


Работа и карьера
Работа для молодёжи — это не только карьерная лестница, но и саморазвитие. Многие выбирают фриланс, стартапы или работу на себя. Офис уступает гибкому графику.


Семья и отношения
Представления о семье меняются. Молодёжь сегодня ищет партнёрство, а не подчинение. Главное — честность.


А хорошие они или плохие. Умные или глупые - покажет лишь время.

Michaelrak Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:02:28

buy drugs online https://trustpharma.top/ mexican pharmacy on line pharmacy

Nikkynaw Sun, 15 Jun 2025 22:57:00

dark web market urls darkmarket link darknet market list

Toddynaw Sun, 15 Jun 2025 22:26:09

dark web market urls dark market onion nexus site official link

Pvhmooky Sun, 15 Jun 2025 22:19:34

I've never thought about it that way, but... I heard that high-quality windows can significantly affect the noise in the apartment. Do you think it's worth investing in PVC windows? And where is the best place to buy them?

JuliusVag Sun, 15 Jun 2025 22:00:56

darknet links darknet markets darknet markets 2025